2024 is coming, will the world economy be OK?

The year 2023 is drawing to a close. In the past year, affected by many factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the world economy has stumbled.

2024 is coming, will the world economy be OK?

Will growth continue to slow?

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global economic growth will be 2.9% in 2024.

The IMF advises that many countries are close to the peak of their tightening cycles and do not need to tighten further; Higher long-term growth will be achieved through structural reforms, with a particular focus on governance, corporate regulation, and the external sector. Multilateral cooperation can help ensure better growth outcomes for all countries; Countries should work to limit geo-economic fragmentation and restore trust in rules-based multilateral frameworks to promote transparency and policy certainty and help promote shared global prosperity.

By contrast, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is more pessimistic about the outlook for the world economy. According to the latest OECD forecast, global economic growth will slow to 2.7% next year, which means that 2024 could be the slowest year for global economic growth since 2020.

The OECD pointed to a slowdown in the pace of growth in the United States next year as a key factor contributing to the global slowdown. U.S. economic growth is expected to slow from 2.4 percent in 2023 to 1.5 percent in 2024 as the Federal Reserve's rate hikes continue to dampen growth. The Fed's rate hike has sharply raised borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

"Economic growth is moderating as tighter financial conditions, weak trade growth and declining business and consumer confidence become apparent," the OECD wrote in the report.

In addition, the OECD warned that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to new risks for the world economy.